(Updated 3:03 p.m.) The Philippine economy will
grow faster than the Asian Development Bank's 5.5 percent forecast for
this year, a senior official of the Manila-based lender said Friday, as
robust expenditures and investor confidence continued to buoy its
markets.
Surprising growth by the economies of
Malaysia and the Philippines in the third quarter also prompted the bank
to raise the forecast for Southeast Asia's output.
“The 5.5 percent will be exceeded this year, because of the unexpected
growth in three quarters,” ADB country director Neeraj Jain told GMA
News Online in a phone interview, referring to the Philippines.
The “uptick in public spending, robust consumption and increased
investor confidence” in the Philippines has cushioned risks posed by a
weak external environment
On the back of strong
growth figures earlier this year, ADB in October raised its Philippine
forecast to 5.5 percent from an earlier 4.8 percent.
The ADB's forecast remains for now as the lender is still finalizing
its assessment for the country, Jain said, but new projections may come
out early next year, ahead of the government's announcement of growth
figures for the whole of 2012.
International
Monetary Fund resident representative Shanaka Jayanath Peirisc on
Thursday said Philippine growth may hit 6 percent this year.
“A strong third quarter lifted prospects in Malaysia and the
Philippines, boosting 2012 growth forecasts in the ASEAN 5 from 5.6
percent to 5.9 percent,” the ADB said in its Asian Development Outlook
Supplement released Friday., referring to Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Southeast
Asia as a whole is now expected to registered 5.3 percent in GDP growth,
up from the 5.2 percent projected in October, the Manila-based lender
added.
The National Statistics Office last week
reported Philippine output – as measured by the gross domestic product –
grew 7.1 percent in July to September, the fastest in the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations and a big surprise for analysts and economic
planners.
Expectations were pegged on 5 percent to 6 percent in the third quarter.
The third quarter Philippine output boosted to 6.5 percent the nine-month average from 3.9 percent a year earlier.
Malaysia grew 5.2 percent in July to September, also higher than market expectations.
Recognizing PHL gains?
Recognizing PHL gains?
“The surging economies of Southeast Asia have been a bright spot in
developing Asia’s otherwise subdued 2012 growth performance,” ADB said
in a statement.
Banco de Oro Unibank chief
market strategist Jonathan Ravelas said in a separate interview the ADB
pronouncement is an “indication that... [the lender] is recognizing the
gains that we've made.
“I think it is already given... most likely we're really exceeding earlier projections,” he said.
Ravelas said the 2012 figures may even go beyond the government's 5
percent to 6 percent goal, as the reconstruction following typhoon the
hit Mindanao this week will help boost the economy.
Jain, however, warned of offshore risks that can hurt the economy. “The
external environment remains unknown and uncertain. The question is how
the growth will hold in with other economies,” he said.
“The challenge now is sustainability of this [strong third quarter]
growth,” Ravelas said, noting that the government should continue
spending and go for more big-ticket infrastructure projects next year.
Sluggish growth in debt-stricken Europe and the United States will weigh on growth for the rest of Asia, according to ADB.
The bank lowered forecasts for East Asia to 6.4 percent from 6.5
percent earlier, even as it kept China's economic outlook at 7.7
percent.
South Asia's economy will likely expand
at a slower 5.3 percent, down from the October projection of 5.5
percent, largely due to the cut in India's growth outlook to 5.4 percent
from 5.6 percent.
“Weak external demand from
major industrial economies...continues to weigh down the growth
prospects for the rest of East Asia,” the ADB report read. — VS, GMA News
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