Philippine exports in November 2012 are poised for a sharp
rebound, with growth in shipments likely to be sustained in 2013,
Singapore-based DBS Bank Ltd. said in its latest research note.
“November export numbers are on tap this week and a 32.2 percent YOY
(year-on-year) increase has been penciled into our forecast,” DBS noted
ahead of the Philippine data to be released on Thursday, Jan. 10.
“The eye-popping number is largely due to low base effects and this
phenomenon will be in play for December as well,” DBS added.
In November 2011, Philippine exports contracted by 19.4 percent due to a
sharp decline in electronics, the country's top export.
The Philippine Exporters Confederation of the Philippines projected
exports to grow slower than the government target of 10 percent to 11
percent for 2012 from a 6.9 percent contraction in 2011.
With Philippine shipments in 2012 likely to show a reversal of
downtrend in 2011, DBS, likewise, said growth in exports will be
sustained in 2013 as the electronics sector ships out more products in
tandem with an improved economy for major trading partner China.
“The export outlook for 2013 is expected to be more favorable with a rebound in the Chinese economy,” the research note read.
“Notably, electronics exports may see a strong revival after a
prolonged period of depressed growth through the most part of last
year,” it added.
Electronics grew by a sluggish
0.3 percent in October 2012, after posting its first gain in September
following five consecutive months of losses.
DBS, however, said growth in the electronics sector “is especially
encouraging... Any kind of boost from electronics will have a meaningful
impact on total exports especially if the non-electronics manufactures
component remains resilient.”
Still, the Singapore-based bank warned that “... near term, the recovery in electronics is likely to be uneven.
“Although the value of electronics export has been creeping up, the US
semiconductor book-to-bill ratio is still at 0.79 in November,” it
added. — Siegfrid Alegado/VS, GMA news
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