Slower merchandise exports growth in October has cemented
expectations that the government's 10 percent target for the year will
not be met, an industry official said Tuesday.
“That means meeting the target of 10 percent is unlikely,” Sergio R.
Ortiz-Luis, president of Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc.
(PhilExports), told GMA News Online, reacting to government data
released this morning.
“... [Hitting the target
is] getting dimmer now, with electronics not sustaining its growth,”
said Ortiz-Luis, who is also vice chairman of the joint public-private
Export Development Council.
On that note, Ortiz-Luis said merchandise exports will “likely grow between 7 to 8 percent.”
While it is keeping the 10-percent target for the year, the EDC will
review its expectations for the next two years, Ortiz-Luis added.
Export receipts grew at a slower 6.1 percent to $4.408 billion in October from $4.155 billion a year earlier, and brought the 10-month tally to $44.475 billion – up 7.1 percent year-on-year.
The growth remains well below the EDC's 10 percent target for 2012.
Electronics – the country's top export – grew by a sluggish 0.3 percent
for the month, after posting its first gain in September from five
consecutive months of declines.
Last month,
Ortiz-Luis said exports may rebound at 9 percent to 10 percent this year
if the electronics sector can sustain a recovery.
Exports fell 6.9 percent last year, against government's estimate of 5
percent growth, largely weighed by the 20-percent plunge in electronics
exports, NSO data showed.
As of this posting,
the Semiconductors and Electronics Industries of the Philippines Inc.
declined to comment until officials were able to review the latest data.
Officials said a statement may be released this afternoon.
In a separate interview, University of Asia and the Pacific economist
Peter Lee U said tepid demand from major economies continue to weigh on
the electronics sector.
“It is still global
uncertainties – problems in Europe and US, which were top exports
destinations – that cause the flat growth in electronics exports,” he
added.
On PhilExport's 7 percent to 8 percent forecast, Lee U said “it's possible, but that remains on the high side.”
Exports will likely grow at a faster pace next year provided that the
US and Europe resolved their respective fiscal problems, Lee U noted.
“Next year, we'll be on the high side,” he added. — VS, GMA News
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