Potential cyclone may enter PAR late Sunday – PAGASA

December 20, 2012 9:57am

A potential cyclone may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late Sunday, state weather forecasters said Thursday.

 

PAGASA forecaster Chris Perez said their models indicate the LPA may intensify into a cyclone before entering the PAR.

 

"Kung patuloy ito sa pagkilos palapit sa bansa, posibleng Linggo ng hapon o gabi papasok ng PAR," Perez said in an interview on dzBB radio.

 

But he said it may not make itself felt until Monday, when it is expected to bring rain to the eastern sections of Visayas and Mindanao.

 

He said that as of 2 a.m. Thursday, the LPA was estimated 2,800 km east of the PAR boundary (see satellite image below, taken at 7 a.m.).

^{Satellite image as of 7 a.m., December 20}

International monitoring

"The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) is continuing to monitor the LPA, which was east of Micronesia as of 2 a.m. The latest satellite imagery show the cloud formation continuing, although low-level convergence and upper-level divergence are more pronounced west of the system," said GMA resident meteorologist Nathaniel "Mang Tani" Cruz.

 

Mang Tani added that the system is forecast to intensify, but it remains to be seen whether the LPA will become a full-blown typhoon.

 

"The latest numerical models suggest slow intensification within the next several days, in contrast to earlier models that showed that it might reach cyclone category before reaching the PAR," Mang Tani said.

 

"Normally ang LPA hanggang nasa dagat ay malaki ang chance mag-intensify given the right atmospheric conditions," Perez explained.

 

Should the LPA become a cyclone while inside the PAR, it will be locally codenamed Quinta.

 

Perez said this would be the last cyclone for 2012.

 

Northeast monsoon

 

For Thursday, PAGASA said the northeast monsoon is affecting Luzon.

 

"Visayas and Mindanao will have cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers or thunderstorms. Cagayan Valley, Bicol region and the provinces of Aurora and Quezon will experience cloudy skies with light rain," it said in its 5 a.m. bulletin.

 

Metro Manila and the rest of the Luzon will be partly cloudy with brief rain showers or thunderstorms, it added.

 

PAGASA also said moderate to strong winds blowing from the northeast will prevail over Luzon and over the eastern section of Visayas and Mindanao and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough.

 

Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the northeast with slight to moderate seas.

 

Gale warning

 

PAGASA said strong to gale-force winds associated with the northeast monsoon may affect the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central and Southern Luzon and Eastern Visayas.

 

"Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the sea while larger sea vessels are alerted against big waves," it said. — TJD, GMA News