Job numbers drop in Q3 2012 despite GDP growth — report

January 23, 2013 4:02pm

The number of Filipinos with jobs dropped in the third quarter of 2012 despite the stronger-than-expected 6.5 percent output as of end-October, a report by First Metro Investments Corp. (FMIC) and University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) said.

In their latest "Market Call" report released Wednesday, FMIC and UA&P noted that "the economy surprisingly not only failed to create more jobs, it even lost almost 900,000 jobs over a year ending October 2012."

Citing results of the recent Labor Force Survey, the report said net job loss in October reached 877,000 from the 478,000 new jobs created in July

The decline could be due to many leaving the local job market to work or study overseas, the report said.

"[T]he loss of jobs simply meant more people in agriculture and services who were classified as 'Unpaid Family Members' and 'Self-employed' persons left the job market to study or go abroad," the report read.

On Tuesday, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said the country should post 6 to 7 percent growth in at least a decade to adequately provide quality jobs for Filipinos and achieve inclusive growth.

But even with poor jobs data, the report said, the economy will not lose steam this year.

"As the most recent job figures tend to be ambivalent, and the election preparations heat up starting December, we expect a further acceleration of growth in [the first half] of 2013," it said.

"The outlook for 2013, however, looks better, with election spending likely to provide an additional boost to domestic demand," the report continued.

"Public and private construction appears headed for another strong performance, while exports and manufacturing may have a better year, considering better economic data for the U.S. and China in November and December," it read further.

The interagency Development Budget Coordinating Committee wants growth to settle within the 6 to 7 percent range in 2013.

The report, likewise, noted that rise in consumer prices will remain benign in 2013 at 3 percent of lower.

"Inflation is likely to continue at 3 percent or lower for most 2013, with food supply remaining abundant, while crude oil prices held down by rising U.S. oil and gas out­put from shale, and from Canadian tar sands," FMIC and UA&P said.

"Due to base year effects, Q1 may see inflation average at 3 percent, but the trend would be downward in subsequent quarters. We expect full-year inflation to average 2.8 percent," they added.

FMIC and UA&P’s full-year inflation forecast is well below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ 3- to 5-percent inflation target this year. — Siegfrid O. Alegado/BM, GMA News